MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 11

Good afternoon all and happy Wednesday to the MLS Fantasy managers out there! We’ve got an early start this week as Round 11 features the first big double game week of the 2018 season. In this article, we’ve focused on two clubs with double the chances to produce strong fantasy returns this week. As per the usual, we’ve surveyed the betting landscape in the hopes that we can leverage it and figure out who will have optimal chances to provide managers with solid returns. Let’s dive in…

LAFC (vs. Minnesota United, vs. NYCFC)

FiveThirtyEight: 64% chance to win vs. Minnesota, 46% chance to win vs NYCFC

OddsShark: LAFC Win -327 vs. Minnesota (weekend match not yet available)

OddsPortal: LAFC Win -333 vs. Minnesota (weekend match not yet available)

LAFC is one of two teams in the MLS this week that plays both games at home, and are very attractive from a fantasy standpoint as a result. Carlos Vela (13.1m) instantly comes to mind and should be in the starting lineup for those managers who can afford him. Additionally, one could even make a case for including Diego Rossi (11.9m) alongside of him in your lineup, given Minnesota’s defensive weakness on the road.

In the midfield, managers can look to Benny Feilhaber (10.3m) to compliment Vela and Rossi in both matches and to have a solid week all around in his deeper midfield role.

Defensively, we’re big fans of both Laurent Ciman (9.3m) and Steve Beitashour (9.0m) this round. Ciman should start in both matches, and we expect Beitashour to participate in both as well. As far as lineup placement, Ciman should be in your XI, whereas Beitashour can be a bench switcheroo, paired with a high-floor/low-ceiling centerback, so that the higher of the two can auto-switch in for a switcheroo plug in the XI.

Atlanta FC (vs. Sporting KC, @ Orlando City SC)

FiveThirtyEight: 56% chance to win vs. SKC, 43% chance to win against

OddsShark: Atlanta Win -160 vs. SKC (weekend match not yet available)

OddsPortal: Atlanta Win -156 vs. SKC (weekend match not yet available)

Let us start by saying that Atlanta is currently leading all of MLS in goals scored with 23. While the first match comes against a solid defensive team (Sporting KC), we like their chances at producing strong fantasy returns given the particularly strong home field advantage they enjoy. As far as the road match against Orlando is concerned – the Lions may be enjoying a nice run at the moment, but they still have some major defensive questions.

As for our picks, Miguel Almiron (13.8m) is basically mandatory. He is absolutely crushing fantasy this year and with a two-game slate approaching, he can be utilized with great confidence (and arguably can get the nod for the captain’s armband as well). Josef Martinez (10.0m) is also a great switcheroo option as well – he’s been slumping as of late, but he’s broken out of these in explosive fashion in the past, which makes him a worthwhile option off the bench this week.

Defensively, Michael Parkhurst (7.8m) in the center of the back line makes him the most likely to participate in a full 180 minutes this round, for those inclined to select an Atlanta defender.

Lastly – you may be wondering why we didn’t feature Columbus here. True, they have both matches at home this round and are favored to win in Vegas. However, we are anticipating a fair amount of rotation, per Gregg Berhalter’s historial modus operandi for midweek matches. However, we do favor goalkeeper Zack Steffen and defender Jonathan Mensah as the two players who are most likely to start both matches – managers would do well to include them in their lineups.