MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 14

Round 14 of the MLS Fantasy season is upon us and we at SoccerCaptains are back with our weekly installment of Parsing the Percentages! As we get ready for the second installment of a Double Game Week, we see that eight teams are slated to play twice. This week will focus on New England and Houston as we look to target those players who will likely play both matches, and similarly have productive outputs. Let’s fire it up!

New England Revolution (vs. Atlanta United, vs. New York Red Bulls)

FiveThirtyEight: 33% chance to win vs ATL, 33% chance to win vs RBNY

OddsShark: NE Win +164 (vs ATL), NE Win +137 (vs RBNY)

OddsPortal: NE Win +162 (vs ATL), NE Win +139 (vs RBNY)

It’s pretty rare that we would pick a team that is actually the underdog in both matches as part of this series. However, New England are one of two teams who are playing BOTH of their Double-Game-Week at home, and Gillette Stadium is a notoriously challenging place for teams to come visit. Throw in the fact that both of their opponents also have to worry about the US Open Cup in the near future, and you have the makings of a possible upset scenario in one, or even both, matches.

Looking to the top of the formation, Cristian Penilla (9.7m) could have a myriad of chances in both games as one of the focal points of the Revs’ attacking scheme. To compliment Penilla, we like Diego Fangundez (9.2m) chances as the primary creative force for the New England attack in the midfield. Additionally, if he plays the full 180 minutes this week, defensive midfielder Wilfried Zahibo (9.7m) will offer a very solid bonus point floor without any of the downside of a back-line New England player should the Revolution give up a few goals this round.

Houston Dynamo (@ Real Salt Lake, @ Montreal Impact)

FiveThirtyEight: 38% chance to win at RSL, 39% chance to win at MTL

OddsShark: HOU Win +154 (@ RSL), HOU Win +158 (@ MTL)

OddsPortal: HOU Win +156 (@ RSL), HOU Win +161 (@ MTL)

Yes, that’s right, in addition to a 2x Home Team this round, we’re actually going with a 2x Away Team as well with Houston this week! Right now, the oddsmakers are giving them about the same odds for a win as they are giving to Real Salt Lake and Montreal this weekend… which speaks volumes to both how strong Houston have been in recent weeks, and how poor both RSL and Montreal have played so far this season.

On the attacking end, wingers Alberth Elis (11.3m) and Romell Quioto (9.0m) are both fantastic options this round as fantasy forwards, with Tomas Martinez (9.1m) continuing to grow in his role as the CAM midfielder. Boniek García (6.4m) has also been a box-to-box monster in recent weeks, racking up both the assists and bonus points – a very solid value option for that final midfield slot.
On the back line, it’s tough to argue against center-backs on double-duty with a defensive bonus floor. Alejandro Fuenmayor (7.3m) has put out several strong outings in a row after a shaky start to the 2018 season, and he could actually see some strong returns this week, especially if Houston jump out to an early lead in either match.