MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 15

What’s up MLS Fantasy managers?! Kevin from SoccerCaptains coming back at you once again with the Round 15 edition of our Parsing the Percentages series. This is an especially tricky week – not only are we contending with players away on international duty, we’ve also had all 20 US-based MLS clubs playing midweek for the US Open Cup.

That being said, I think we’ve got some great picks for you today. After surveying the landscape in Vegas and having a look at midweek lineups, I’ve decided to focus on FC Dallas and the Houston Dynamo this weekend, where I think we’ll see some great MLS Fantasy returns this weekend!

Houston Dynamo (vs. Colorado)

FiveThirtyEight: 64% chance to win

OddsShark: Houston Win -244

OddsPortal: Houston Win -245

Colorado are a bit of a dumpster fire at this point, which makes Houston an easy pick – especially on the attacking end. At the top of the pitch for Houston, fantasy forwards Alberth Elis (10.9m) and Romell Quioto (9.5m) both immediately jump out. Given their opponent, this is one of those rare weeks where managers could feasibly start two forwards from the same team, as we expect monster returns from both players on Saturday.

MLS Fantasy managers may also want to consider employing the services of midfielder Tomas Martinez (8.9m). Last week, Martinez only played one full match and didn’t produce very much during it - however, there’s no better matchup than Colorado for him to bounce back and show some of the fantasy explosiveness that we’ve seen him put on display in 2018.

Even against the Rapids, we’re still wary of Houston’s defensive prospects – they will likely win big, but leak a goal at some point during the match as they are wont to do. Alejandro Fuenmayor (7.3m) isn’t a terrible bench pick, however we won’t be including him in our lineup simply because there are better options out there this weekend.

FC Dallas (vs. Montreal)

FiveThirtyEight: 60% chance to win

OddsShark: DAL Win -233

OddsPortal: DAL Win -230

You’re likely not surprised to see this one come up – not only are Montreal currently in the process of falling apart (with ownership threatening to sell Nacho Piatti), but they’re on the road against a non-conference team. Unlike Houston, however, we like Dallas’ fantasy prospects on both ends of the pitch.

One of the most consistent players on the FC Dallas squad has been their forward, Maximiliano Urruti (9.6m). While his 4-match scoring streak was snapped against LAFC, Urruti has been solid all year, and we look for him to continue that trend this weekend against a weak Montreal midfield. MLS Fantasy managers should be strongly considering partnering Urruti with Mauro Diaz (10.4m) in the hopes of doubling-down on attacking returns this weekend. Additionally, Roland Lamah (9.4m), if he plays, could be a fun bench option for managers looking to catch lightning in a bottle.

Defensively, Jesse Gonzalez (6.5m) appears to have taken back the starting role, and is a strong goalkeeper switcheroo option this weekend. We’re also likely including either Ryan Ziegler (7.3m) or Reggie Cannon (8.3m) this weekend… if not both!

PS: Special shout-outs to the Vancouver Whitecaps and Toronto FC this weekend. Vancouver hosts a slumping Orlando club that is making one of the longest trips possible for an MLS team, while Toronto faces a Philly squad missing two very important pieces in the central midfield (Ale Bedoya and Haris Medunjanin). Both Toronto and Vancouver could feast this weekend, and we'll likely feature multiple players from both squads in our lineup this weekend - make sure to keep an eye out for Tim's picks on Friday!