MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 32

Hello to all the MLS Fantasy Managers out there, and happy October! As we get ready to dive into the weekend’s matches, we’re back once again with our Parsing the Percentages series to help managers target some optimal plays this weekend. Look to Soccer Captains for your MLS Fantasy advice and content. With that, here… we… go!


Atlanta FC (vs. New England)

FiveThirtyEight: 72% chance to win vs DC United

OddsShark: ATL Win -333 (vs NE)

OddsPortal: ATL Win -327 (vs NE)


When you think about potent offenses in the MLS you, of course, have to include Atlanta in that conversation. Josef Martinez (13.1m) and Miguel Almiron (12.5m) are two of the most prolific offensive weapons in all of MLS, and they are going up against a New England squad that should be overmatched on the road this weekend. If you can find a way to work both of these players into your lineup, please do, as we’re anticipating a productive day from both of them.

Julian Gressel (11.4m) is another solid option in the midfield – the German international is in very solid form with five assists and a goal in his last four matches, and he’s slightly cheaper than Almiron if your budget is tight. You could also pair him up with Hector Villalba (10.6m) for Atlanta attacking exposure in your lineup at a slightly discounted price.

Defensively, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez (8.7m) and Brad Guzan (6.4m) are your best bet for the Five Stripes defensive representation. With a 3:30pm EST start time, managers would have plenty of time to make adjustments if they were to deploy them on their bench in a switcheroo.


Toronto FC (vs. Vancouver)

FiveThirtyEight: 64% chance to win vs Portland

OddsShark: TOR Win -175 (vs VAN)

OddsPortal: TOR Win -172 (vs VAN)


Despite struggling through what has been a very disappointing MLS campaign in 2018, Toronto FC are still not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Moreover, they have won their previous two home matches and are hosting a Vancouver squad that is making a very long trip for a classic Canadian showdown.

Sebastian Giovinco (14m) though costly, could be the best play of the week. He’s been in red-hot form as of late, arguably keeping Toronto alive single-handedly, and is an absolute beast on the home pitch. Try your best to make some space in your lineup for him, as he will be one of the most popular captain picks this round.

Almost equally as strong in form is midfielder Victor Vazquez (8.9m), who has found the scoresheet in each of Toronto’s last two home wins. At just 8.9m, he could help offset some of the cost of bringing in Seba, as he’s very reasonably priced compared to other midfielders of his caliber in MLS Fantasy. We also rate Jonathan Osorio’s (11.3m) expected returns to be roughly the same as Vazquez’s, although if managers are looking to save a few bucks it might make more sense to go with V-Squared.

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