Hello all MLS Fantasy Managers and happy first couple of days of Spring 2019! The 2019 season has kicked off and already we’ve got three weeks in the books. We have looked at the metrics across the first three weeks and are starting up with another Parsing the Percentages piece (apologies for the alliteration) in which we will recommend players who can provide a return to their managers based upon the teams chances of winning. With that in mind, please continue below to the content and good luck to all managers in Round 4 as we get the breakdown started.
NY Red Bulls (vs. Orlando City)
FiveThirtyEight: 79% chance to win vs Orlando
FanDuel: NYRB Win -250
DraftKings: NYRB Win -245
The New York Red Bulls has been an offensive force in the MLS for some time, and it seems that this trend will continue as we look to week 4 of the MLS season. They are going against an Orlando team that has given up 6 goals in three matches, and NYRB will look to expose a back line that has looked quite vulnerable thus far in 2019. The first name that naturally comes to mind when looking at the NYRB offense is Bradley Wright-Phillips (10.8m). Coming off last week's match where he played 89 minutes and found the back of the net, we like BWP to enjoy several opportunities to find the scoresheet on Saturday.
Another player to pair with BWP in your fantasy lineup would be Danny Royer (8.0m). The Austrian national is averaging 13 points per round so far in 2019, so he should see a price increase no matter what this weekend to go along with what should be quite a few attacking opportunities. Marc Rzatkowski (7.5m) and Sean Davis (7.8m) are also high-floor options if you are loading up on non-BWP forwards. We'd also recommend keeping an eye on lineups, as Alex Muyl (6.7m) and Omir Fernandez (5.5m) could offer great value as a boom-or-bust option as a switcheroo if they earn the start.
The Red Bulls are missing most of their back line to international duty this weekend, we're shying away from their defenders a bit... but if you want to bet on a clean sheet, Kyle Duncan (5.2m) is a very solid switcheroo option, especially since he is expected to play at right back, a more natural position for him.
LAFC (vs. Real Salt Lake)
FiveThirtyEight: 69% chance to win vs RSL
FanDuel: LAFC Win -390
OddsPortal: LAFC Win -315
Our sites now turn to an LAFC club that has been seeing some great success on the offensive side of the pitch through the first three weeks. The top choice here is Carlos Vela (11.8m) who is enjoying a true offensive prowess to begin the season. He has three goals on the season so far, and should have great chances against a suspect RSL back line that has suffered to find a grove to start the MLS season. Managers can get Vela into their lineup with great confidence and the argument could be made that he should be the hands down choice to get the armband as well, here in week 4.
However, we would be remiss if we didn't include Latif Blessing (6.9m) and Adama Diomande (9.8m) in the mix here as well; RSL are going to be missing quite a few players this weekend, so this could be one of those rare situations where you could include three forwards from the same club in your lineup this weekend. This could also be the week where Diego Rossi (9.1m) joins the scoring party, however he is a bit of a risk for a price decrease given his (relative) lack of fantasy production over the first three rounds.
If you are chasing for some clean sheet points from LAFC this weekend, Walker Zimmerman (7.3m) will be your best bet. However, given LAFC's offensive prospects this weekend, we can't recommend having more than one LAFC defender.