So here we are; week 2 of MLS season back in action for the 2018 season. We saw some interesting results in the first week and hopefully managers were able to shake off some of the cobwebs to optimize their lineup and scoring options for Week 2.
This article is designed to provide further data with respect to analyzing which team, and moreover which player, should WIN their match and ideally score a goal. The concept here is that if a team has a higher chance to win their match, they will need to score a goal (or multiple goals) to do so. Upon identifying those matches with the chance to win, we will then look at the team's best offensive weapons who would likely have the most advantageous chance to score a goal and thus score in Fantasy MLS.
We've looked at several betting lines in putting together this article, but the crew over at FiveThirtyEight does a great job with their MLS coverage, so we're using their percentages as a reference below.
ATL vs DC (3/11/18) - ATL with a 65% Chance to Win
Based upon matchup and strength of players (granted this is only week 2) the team with the highest % chance to win would be Atlanta at home against DC United. Atlanta had a rough go at it last week, posting a goose egg against a strong Houston home club, however, we like The Five Stripes to get on the scoreboard for the first time this weekend... and doing so quite often. That being said, we would ideally like to target the fantasy studs on ATL to further their chance of scoring and getting bonus points - Josef Martinez ($10.7m) and Miguel Almiron ($10m) are two appealing options for this Round 2 slate. Although expensive, with some of the other clubs on BYE this week, we feel that ATL will bounce back and find the back of the net against DC... and ideally, the two most likely members to help their team find the win column is the combination of Martinez and Almiron
NYC vs LA (3/11/18) - NYCFC with a 59% Chance to Win
The second game which we find tantalizing based upon the matchup and % chance to win would be NYCFC taking on LAFC at home. Last week, NYCFC hung 2 goals on a very solid back 4 and keeper in Sporting KC and did so while receiving a red-card (granted, it was in the 88th minute). The NYCFC has always had a strong attacking front and able to score a flurry of goals at an instant, and we look for that trend to continue this weekend at home against LA Galaxy. Of course, when one talks about NYCFC David Villa ($11m) instantly comes to mind; capable of putting up huge numbers and often appearing to score at will, he is in a glorious spot this weekend and should see many chances to score and put up numbers. Two other players to keep your eyes on are Maxi Moralez ($9.7) and Jesus Medina ($9.5). With similar price points, these two are solid options to slot into your MF - Medina had the better scoring weekend last week but Moralez was also very involved in the attacking front for NYCFC. Look for both players to be heavily involved as NYCFC tries to get another win at home for their fans. With Romain Alessandrini confirmed OUT for this matchup, look to the NYCFC midfielders to expose the middle of the field and rack up some points.