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Parsing The Percentages


Friday April 5

MLS Fantasy 2019 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 6

What's up MLS Fantasy managers?! Round 6 is upon us, featuring yet another Friday night matchup as Vancouver hosts LA Galaxy at 10pm EST tonight!

As we do every week, we've scoured the Vegas landscape in the hopes of gleaning some fantasy knowledge to share with you all. The spreads are a little wider for this round than they were last weekend with a handful of teams pretty heavily favored - this week we're focusing in on Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders.

Toronto FC (vs. Chicago)

FiveThirtyEight: 64% chance to win vs Chicago

FanDuel: TFC Win -175

DraftKings: TFC Win -182

Alejandro Pozuelo had one of the all-time great debuts as a DP in MLS history, as TFC rolled over NYCFC at home by a 4-0 margin. Toronto get a chance to double up here as a struggling Chicago club comes to town after a rock-fight of a match against RBNY where they won 1-0 thanks to a Tim Parker own goal. We're anticipating another strong fantasy outing for TFC players on both ends of the pitch, so here's where we rank their players for Round 6:

1) Alejandro Pozuelo – 10.5m – MID

2) Jozy Altidore – 10.1m – FWD

3) Drew Moor – 5.4m – DEF

4) Alex Bono – 6.0m – GK

5) Nick DeLeon – 6.5m – DEF

6) Michael Bradley – 10.5m – MID

Seattle (vs. RSL)

FiveThirtyEight: 62% chance to win vs RSL

FanDuel: SEA Win -240

DraftKings: SEA Win -235

Seattle returns home after taking a trip up north where they drew Vancouver 0-0 in a hard-fought draw. Vancouver was surprisingly strong defensively last weekend, but now Seattle gets to come home and face a reeling RSL squad that has lost three straight matches and will be missing Damir Kreilach to suspension as well as potentially Erik Holt and Justen Glad. We expect the Sounders to rebound at home and come away with something along the lines of a 3-0 victory.

1) Nico Lodeiro – 11.9m – MID

2) Brad Smith – 6.8m – DEF

3) Victor Rodriguez – 9.7m – MID

4) Raul Ruidiaz – 11.0m – FWD Injury concern

5) Cristian Roldan – 9.0m – MID

6) Stefan Frei – 6.0m – GK

7) Jordan Morris – 9.2m – FWD

8) Kelvin Leerdam – 7.0m – DEF

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Saturday March 30

MLS Fantasy 2019 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 5

Hello all! Kevin from SoccerCaptains back at it here at the tail end of March for the Round 5 installment of our Parsing The Percentages series. The MLS weekend kicked off early on Friday night, but Vegas seems to favor a couple more teams that play later on in the weekend - so without further ado, here are our picks from SKC and LA Galaxy!

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Friday October 5

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 32

Hello to all the MLS Fantasy Managers out there, and happy October! As we get ready to dive into the weekend’s matches, we’re back once again with our Parsing the Percentages series to help managers target some optimal plays this weekend. Look to Soccer Captains for your MLS Fantasy advice and content. With that, here… we… go!

Atlanta FC (vs. New England)

FiveThirtyEight: 72% chance to win vs DC United

OddsShark: ATL Win -333 (vs NE)

OddsPortal: ATL Win -327 (vs NE)

When you think about potent offenses in the MLS you, of course, have to include Atlanta in that conversation. Josef Martinez (13.1m) and Miguel Almiron (12.5m) are two of the most prolific offensive weapons in all of MLS, and they are going up against a New England squad that should be overmatched on the road this weekend. If you can find a way to work both of these players into your lineup, please do, as we’re anticipating a productive day from both of them.

Julian Gressel (11.4m) is another solid option in the midfield – the German international is in very solid form with five assists and a goal in his last four matches, and he’s slightly cheaper than Almiron if your budget is tight. You could also pair him up with Hector Villalba (10.6m) for Atlanta attacking exposure in your lineup at a slightly discounted price.

Defensively, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez (8.7m) and Brad Guzan (6.4m) are your best bet for the Five Stripes defensive representation. With a 3:30pm EST start time, managers would have plenty of time to make adjustments if they were to deploy them on their bench in a switcheroo.

Toronto FC (vs. Vancouver)

FiveThirtyEight: 64% chance to win vs Portland

OddsShark: TOR Win -175 (vs VAN)

OddsPortal: TOR Win -172 (vs VAN)

Despite struggling through what has been a very disappointing MLS campaign in 2018, Toronto FC are still not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Moreover, they have won their previous two home matches and are hosting a Vancouver squad that is making a very long trip for a classic Canadian showdown.

Sebastian Giovinco (14m) though costly, could be the best play of the week. He’s been in red-hot form as of late, arguably keeping Toronto alive single-handedly, and is an absolute beast on the home pitch. Try your best to make some space in your lineup for him, as he will be one of the most popular captain picks this round.

Almost equally as strong in form is midfielder Victor Vazquez (8.9m), who has found the scoresheet in each of Toronto’s last two home wins. At just 8.9m, he could help offset some of the cost of bringing in Seba, as he’s very reasonably priced compared to other midfielders of his caliber in MLS Fantasy. We also rate Jonathan Osorio’s (11.3m) expected returns to be roughly the same as Vazquez’s, although if managers are looking to save a few bucks it might make more sense to go with V-Squared.

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Wednesday August 29

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 27

Hello and happy matchday to all the Fantasy MLS Managers out there. Round 27 features a total of EIGHT teams on double-duty while Colorado and Chicago are both on bye, which means we’ve got plenty of switcheroo options out there this round. Let’s jump right in!

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Thursday August 23

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 26

Good evening all and happy Thursday to all the MLS Fanatsy managers! K-Manner back at ya as always with our weekly Parsing the Percentages piece! I’ve scanned the betting landscape to come up with the picks to help you optimize your lineups coming into the Round 26 weekend.

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Wednesday August 15

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 25

Hello there Fantasy MLS Managers, and welcome back to our weekly Parsing the Percentages series! For Round 25, we will focus on a pair of teams playing tonight who are slated for two games this week, allowing us to double our chances at some solid returns! So without further ado, let’s get to it!

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Thursday August 9

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 24

Hello there Fantasy MLS Managers and welcome back to our weekly Parsing the Percentages series! With one of our regular teams on bye this week (Atlanta), we’ve decided to head out west for our picks this week – so without further adieu, let's get it going!

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Wednesday July 25

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 22

Happy matchday and warm welcome to all MLS Fantasy Managers! Round 22 has arrived with yet another full slate of midweek action as we kick off on a Wednesday Night once again. With nine teams playing twice this round, we will focus on two teams amongst this group whom we feel will provide significant returns on both legs this week. We’ve actually got a bit of a ‘coastal elite’ theme going on this week as we’ve selected the New York Red Bulls and the LA Galaxy as our two clubs this week. So without further ado, let’s get right to it!

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Tuesday July 17

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 21

Happy Round 21 to all MLS Fantasy Managers, and congratulations on the completion of the spring portion of the 2018 MLS Fantasy season! After the excitement of the World Cup and seeing France crowned, Soccer Captains is back at ya with our Parsing the Percentages series. Tim had you guys covered earlier this week for the two teams on double-duty this week (MNU & NER), so we will be focusing clubs only participating in a single match this weekend. We’re also going to throw a bit of a wrinkle in here: we’re going with clubs that do not fall on the “Usual Suspects” list that includes Atlanta, RBNY, and Portland… instead, we’re going with clubs that should allow you to diversify your lineup a bit and provide value in the last 2-3 slots in your lineups. Therefore, we’re going with Real Salt Lake at home against Colorado and Columbus at home against Orlando. So without further ado - let's dive in!

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Wednesday July 11

MLS Fantasy 2018 - Parsing The Percentages, Round 20

Good day everyone and happy Round 20 of the MLS Fantasy season! We’ve got yet another early start this round as NYCFC, Chicago, and Montreal each have a double-game-week slate. This week, we will focus on NYCFC and Chicago as we look to employ the services of as many double game week players that will fit into our lineups, so that they can take advantage of each game. With that in mind, let us dive right in!

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